America’s partners in Asia were on edge ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue defense conference in Singapore. It’s a stressful time in geopolitics, with active conflicts in Europe and the Mideast, a recent flare-up between nuclear powers India and Pakistan, and rising frustration over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
That was all on top of the usual tensions between the US and China over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
But the biggest wildcard heading into the annual forum was over the message US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth might bring. At an earlier gathering in Munich this past March, Vice President JD Vance set the room aflame with his accusation that European leaders were “running in fear from their own voters.” Was Asia about to get the Vance treatment, but from the new Pentagon chief?
Not at all. Hegseth delivered a harsh (but not unexpected) assessment of China — saying it was preparing for an “imminent” invasion of Taiwan — and pressing nations to boost defense spending toward 5% of GDP. No bridges were burned.
His diplomatic approach — even acknowledging that many nations have tight economic ties with Beijing — won plaudits. But if Washington’s military message was clear, the economic one was far murkier. And that left America’s partners nervous.
In hallway conversations, officials voiced concern that Washington’s economic volatility could undermine its security promises. Even close allies signaled caution — Australia welcomed Hegseth’s engagement, but warned of the damage from high tariffs. Malaysia, caught right between Beijing and Washington, was also cautious.
“Trade is not a soft power indulgence, it is part of our strategic architecture,” Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said. “It must be protected, not from competition, but from the onslaught of arbitrary imposition of trade restrictions.” And leaders including France’s Emmanuel Macron warned against the creation of “spheres of coercion.”
Hegseth punted when pressed on whether the administration’s trade agenda might conflict with its security expectations, saying he is in the “business of tanks, not trade.”
The absence of China’s defense minister for the first time since 2019 gave the US more room to shape the agenda and countries like the Philippines more space to blast Beijing’s policies. With China largely absent and Washington unpredictable, many nations looked to each other — and to Europe — to keep the balance. Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said he’s attended the conference for three straight years, and this one featured the biggest European presence yet.
“The message we’re sending is that, if we want the partners in the Indo-Pacific to be interested in our security problems, we’d better be interested in theirs,” Jonson said. — Alberto Nardelli and Philip Heijmans